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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.24 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model