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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(6:24) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to BAL 3, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model