Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 92

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

(3:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to LAC 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-J.Jones to LAC 30 for -2 yards (27-A.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.99 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model