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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model