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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 99

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 54 yards to BAL 45, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-J.Ross to LAC 38 for 17 yards (47-M.Windt).

The Three Options

GO -3.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 99, worth -6.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model