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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 26

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model