Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 2 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(1:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to SF 11 for 2 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model