Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 86

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 2

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-49-B.Miller. SF-31-L.McCray was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.64 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model