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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model