4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model