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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model