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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Q.Dial), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model