Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(9:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to SF 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. #23 R Bush caught the ball and foot landed on OB. Ruled punt OB.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model