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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-B.Ellington to SF 35 for 5 yards (54-B.Hager). PENALTY on SF-58-E.Harold, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.59 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP