Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

(10:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-11-Q.Patton.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model