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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Simpson (21-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model