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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP