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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP