Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 95

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

(2:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster pushed ob at HOU 28 for 37 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.01 EP
70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 95, worth -5.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model