Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 10

(11:39) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model