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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 79

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 30 for 10 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model