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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 45

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model