Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 73

Houston Texans 20 – Tennessee Titans 6

(7:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 25 for 7 yards (45-J.Prosch).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.02 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model