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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass incomplete short right to 81-R.Richardson (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model