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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model