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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 23 for 10 yards (28-M.Huff; 48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP