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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 95

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 36, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 46 for 10 yards (28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 95, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model