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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 2-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP