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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model