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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 8-A.Lee punts 28 yards to CLE 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-34-I.Crowell.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP