4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to CIN 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model