4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Benjamin (27-D.Kirkpatrick). Penalty on CLE-11-T.Benjamin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.50 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP