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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 6-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model