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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model