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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.46 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP