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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to IND 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 3 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model