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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to IND 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 27 for -1 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model