Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Denver Broncos 0

(:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.43 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -2.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model