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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model