Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to DEN 25, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND. PENALTY on IND-27-W.Guy, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model