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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 11

Denver Broncos 14 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP