4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 49

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to IND 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-40-J.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model