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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.37 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP