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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to NYJ 4, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 10 for 6 yards (59-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model