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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 44

New York Jets 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model