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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 81

New York Jets 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-26-Dar.Walls.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model