4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 19-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model