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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 33 for 11 yards (59-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP