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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 58

New York Jets 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-R.Quigley punts 48 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-57-T.Reilly.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP