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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model